Friday, November 20, 2009

Fundamental Factors behind major Currencies

Every currency traded in Forex is influenced by the conditions in its country of origin, and the external relations that affect its value. Economic Indicators (GDP growth, import/export trade accounts), social factors (unemployment rate, real estate market conditions) and the country’s central bank policy are the factors that determine the currency value in the Forex market. Each one of the six major currencies has its particularities, and we are going to analyze the fundamentals that drive the currencies individually.

The U.S. dollar (USD) is the most traded currency in the Forex market. It is also used as a measure to evaluate other currencies and commodities. The reserves in USD are by far the largest being held by different nations, and they compose 64% of the world reserves. Globally speaking, the fundamentals that drive the U. S. Dollar are several. Since the largest amount of metallic commodities and the oil are mostly traded with prices in USD, significant demand variations in these markets will reflect directly on the currency value, as it happened in 2008 with the EUR/USD reaching 1.60, being the oil price a big contributor for this event. In the domestic market, the biggest factor that has been moving the dollar are the industry indicators and the real estate boom, and both were caused by an unsustainable credit system which could not be paid, causing a domino effect in the United States economy, and consequently, worldwide. During the last few years, the USD has been losing ground for other currencies, thanks to the credit bubble, and erroneous social policies, but it will still remain as one of the most powerful currencies for an undetermined period of time.

The euro (EUR) is by far the newest currency traded among the major pairs traded on Forex markets. It is used by 16 European Union member countries and it tends to enlarge during the next few years. The fundamental factors that move the Euro are often based on the strongest economies using the new common currency, such as: France, Italy and mainly Germany. The countries’ indicators regarding export trade, inflation and unemployment rate tend to have a high impact on the EUR movements, considering that countries such as Germany are larger exporters of manufactures and technology. Europe still remains an energy dependant from the Russian gas and the Middle Eastern Oil, making higher demands for these commodities to have a negative reflect on the European Union common currency.

The pound sterling (GBP) is the national currency of the United Kingdom, and the fundamental factors that move it are as complex and variable as the British economy and its global influence. The London commodity market plays a fundamental role in the GBP trends, being a reference for oil and gold trading. Nevertheless, as a powerful and globally dynamic economy, the United Kingdom indicators, social situation and the housing sector are perhaps the main determinant factors for the GBP price. Lately, the British economy has faced inflation issues, which led the interest rates to be cut, industrial recession, and other domestic factors that made the trading movements to naturally flow from the GBP towards other strong economically backed currencies, such as the EUR.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is the strongest and by far the most traded currency in the Asian market. Japan’s economy is mainly orientated to the industrial production exportation, and the economic situation of its main commercial partner, the USA, tends to have a direct influence on the JPY market. The JPY is a low-yield currency, being the GBP/JPY the most volatile pair traded on Forex, usually the scalper’s favorite one.

Switzerland is a small country located in the European Alps, yet, its strong international trade and money influx, made the Swiss franc (CHF), one of the main currencies traded on Forex. The CHF is often preferred by low yield investors. In times of financial instability, such as for the last years with the USD, many traders choose the CHF as a safe investment. The CHF trends can be often compared to those of the gold, increasing their value while other markets’ tends to depreciate during economic downturns.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces a similar situation with the other commodity currencies, being majorly an export-dependable. Most of the Canadian production is exported to the USA. Facing the very same credit bubble problem that dragged America into recession, Canada has to deal also with a decreasing demand for all commodities. The CAD usually correlates positively with the prices for the all commodities.

EUR/USD Forms Doji This Week

I’ll try to cover the latest fundamental reports from the U.S. economy that affected the EUR/USD pair this week. Today, the dollar is losing against the euro, but overall week is almost a perfect doji candle with a lower spike being a bit longer than the upper one. The weekly high for EUR/USD lies near 1.4376 and the low — near 1.4176. Currently it’s trading near 1.4306.

Nonfarm payrolls were reported today, showing a loss of 216k in August, following 276k decline in July. The forecasts expected 230k drop. The overall unemployment rate went up to 9.7% — up from 9.4%.

Other important reports this week included:

Chicago PMI business barometer index jumped up from 43.4 to 50.0 in August. It was expected to grow to 48.0.

ISM PMI index rose from 48.9% to 52.9% in August. This increase exceeded the forecasted growth to 50.5%.

Pending home sales index rose by 3.2% in July after advancing by 3.6% in June. Only 1.5% change was expected to be reported according to the analysts’ forecast.

Construction spending report disappointed traders with the monthly change for July at -0.2% after 0.3% growth a month earlier and zero change expectation.

ADP employment report showed a decrease by 298k workplaces in August, which is not that bad after 360k loss in July, but nevertheless the forecasts were pointing at -260k change.

Thanks to the extensive optimization of their business processes by the companies, the nonfarm productivity increased at an annual rate of 6.6% in the second quarter of 2009, which is better than 6.4% released in the preliminary report.

Factory orders rose by 1.3% in July, coming higher than 0.9% gain in June, but falling short of 2.2% estimated by the market analysts.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels during the last week, while the total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 3 million barrels during the same period.

Initial jobless claims were at 570k last week — down from 574k during the week before that. The market participants expected a 560k value.

ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 46.4% to 48.4% in August. The forecast value was quite close — at 48.2%.

EUR/USD Gains for 4th Day on Continuing Optimism

The euro is currently showing a small daily gain against the U.S. dollar — its fourth bullish daily candle this week. The series of the better-than-expected or just good macroeconomic reports from the developed economies increases the attractiveness of the euro and other riskier assets as the investment medias. Today EUR/USD set its new highest level since September 25th, 2008. Currently it’s trading near 1.4718.

Building permits annual number rose from 564k to 579k in August. Housing starts increased from 589k to 598k during the same period. The housing starts were expected to gain to 595k.

Initial jobless claims went down from 557k to 545k last week. They declined even faster than the forecast — 561k.

Phildaphia Fed index increased from 4.2 to 14.1 in September. This index indicates the manufacturing activity in the region.

Yesterday, some other important fundamental reports were released in the United States:

August’s CPI was reported with a monthly change at 0.4%, which followed an unchanged value of the consumer price index in July and was slightly better than 0.3% increase in the forecasts.

The preliminary report for the current account balance showed a deficit of $98.8 billion in the second quarter of 2009 — down from $104.5 billion. It’s lowest value of the deficit since Q4 2001. Forecasts by the economic strategists predicted a fall to $92.0 billion.

Net foreign purchases of the U.S. long-term securities were at $15.3 billion in July after $90.2 billion in June. Expected purchases value was near $60 billion.

Industrial production and capacity utilization both improved in August considerably. Industrial production went up by 0.8% after 1.0% gain a month before and 0.6% forecasts. Capacity utilization went up from 69.0% to 69.6%.

Commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels compared to the previous week in U.S. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels during the same short period.

E-Global Trade & Finance — Forex Broker with Liberty Reserve

Today I’ve added another Forex broker to the site — E-Global Forex. It’s not a new broker (they’ve been on-line since 2007) and they also have a rather popular IB company working for them — Forex4you (which has some additional features compared to E-Global). Apart from the standard Forex trading accounts that start from $100, E-Global offers cent accounts that have only $20 minimum and allow trading with positions as small as 10 base currency units (0.0001 lots). It’s a broker with MetaTrader 4 platform. Other highlights of this broker include:

* Sharia-compliant accounts on request
* Leverage from 1:10 to 1:500
* Small yearly interest on account balance (applied monthly)
* Regulated on BVI but offices based in Cyprus
* Deposit via Liberty Reserve, credit card and wire transfer
* Forex, CFD, gold and oil trading

EUR/USD Down After FOMC Claims

EUR/USD managed to reach its new high level since late September 2008 and then went down below the daily open level today. The FOMC decision played the major role in today’s decline of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Currently EUR/USD is trading near 1.4764 after reaching as high as 1.4842 earlier today.

U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave the interest rate unchanged between 0% and 0.25% but slowing down the purchase of the mortgage securities and the agency debt. The statement from the Fed also included a claim that the economical output is expected to be very low for an ”extended period”, while the changes in the monetary policy are expected to be made at the end of the first quarter of 2010.

Crude oil inventories increased for the first time in several weeks — by 2.8 million barrels during the week ending September 18. During the same time total motor gasoline inventories went up by 5.4 million barrels. Such a growth of the inventories have put a great pressure on the oil prices globally.

A minor market indicator was released this Monday — Leading Economic Indicators index increased by 0.6% in August, following 0.9% gain in July. The index was expected to rise by 0.7% in August.

UK Economy UK Economic Profile, British Economy, United Kingdom Economy

During the days of the British Empire the UK economy was the largest in the world and the first to industrialise (or industrialize, ushering in the Industrial Revolution). Although it has declined in significance since, the UK is still the sixth largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity.

It is a member of the G7 (now expanding to the G8 and G20), the European Union (although not the European Economic and Monetary Union -EMU – or Euro) and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). It is also the founding member of the Commonwealth, the association formed by former British Empire states.

The British Economy is one of the most globalised (or globalized) economies in the world, thanks in no small part to the City of London, considered to be the largest financial center in the world.

The economy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain includes the economies of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The Isle of Man and the Channel Isles are part of the British Isles and have offshore banking status.

The Bank of England had cut interest rates to 1.0 per cent by the end of 2008, and that is expected to drop to 0.5 per cent for most of 2009 and 2010.

UK budget deficit stood at 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2008. With economic stimulus packages and bank bailouts being worked on, that is expected to balloon to 11.3 per cent of GDP in 2009 and 13 per cent of GDP in 2010.

In 2008, the UK had the 43rd largest relative national public debt, at 47.2 per cent of GDP. This figure could rise to 58.5 per cent of GDP by 2009 and 70 per cent of GDP in 2010, thanks to the projected budget deficits of 2009-2010.

Inflation had ramped up to 3.6 per cent in 2008, but has dropped back with the economic collapse and is expected to be 0.4 per cent in 2009 and 0.8 per cent in 2010. It had the 58th lowest inflation rate in the world at end 2008.

The 3-month Treasury rate has similarly dropped, from 5.5 per cent in 2008 to an expected 1.3 per cent in 2009 and 2010.

The unemployment rate had reached 6.3 per cent in the UK by the end of 2008 according to the Office of National Statistics, reaching close to 2 million unemployed. This figure is likely to grow to the 2.5 million – 3 million figures, or 8-10 per cent.

The UK has the third highest current account deficit in the world of US$186 billion. It has a large trade deficit in manufacturing and has become a net importer of energy and North Sea extraction declines. It runs $468.7 billion of exports (9th in the world export rankings) and $654.7 billion of imports (6th in the world).

It was the 2nd largest recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2007 (although the figure has dropped since), and one of the most competitive in Europe for business and tax.

Dutch Bankers’ Code To Limit Bonuses Next Year

The Netherlands Bankers’ Association, or NVB, will implement a code of conduct for banks next year that will limit the level of bonuses awarded and strengthen corporate governance, the association said Wednesday.

According to the Code for Banks, bonuses for board members may not exceed their fixed income by more than 100%. The code also determines that bonuses can be reclaimed, “if long term targets will not be met,” NVB spokesman Kees Verhagen said to Dow Jones Newswires. “This also means that in practice bonuses will often be paid in terms related to achieved targets and not all at once in advance anymore”, he added.

The code also requires strengthening of governance, risk management and auditing for banks.

NVB said that the code will apply from Jan. 1, 2010, and banks must report on the implementation of the code’s regulations in their annual reports.

NVB, with almost 100 member banks, said an independent commission will monitor the implementation of the Code for Banks.

“The members of this commission will be appointed in close consultation with the Dutch Ministry of Finance”, Verhagen said. Shareholders and supervisory boards will also play an important role in monitoring the compliance of the code, he said.

According to the NVB spokesman, the Dutch Code for Banks anticipates a discussion of bankers’ bonuses at the summit of leaders from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations in Pittsburgh later this month.

GLOBAL MARKETS: European Stocks Drop; Time To Take Profits

European stocks were marginally lower Wednesday, as investors consolidated profits, particularly in basic resources after three successive sessions of gains.

“There may be some nervousness as investors consider the strength of the rally since March, but we expect the market to be supported by further positive earnings surprises and estimate revisions,” said Simon Goodfellow, equity strategist at ING.

So although the market has edged lower Wednesday, “we stick with our positive view of European equity markets.”

While mining stocks were sold off the auto sector surged higher, helped by equity rating upgrades.

The market was also waiting for an update from General Motors (GM) regarding the future of Adam Opel GmbH, with the American auto giant weighing up several options.

At 0805 GMT, the pan-European Stoxx 600 declined 0.3% to 237.1. London’s FTSE 100 index was down 0.2% at 4937, Frankfurt’s DAX index fell 0.3% to 5462, and the CAC-40 index in Paris lost 0.3% at 3650.

The auto sector was the stand-out sector, with the Stoxx Europe automobiles index up 1.2%. BMW (BMW.XE) increased 4.8% after equity rating upgrades from Royal Bank of Scotland and Morgan Stanley and a higher price target from Credit Suisse. Daimler (DAI) was up 2.2% after RBS raised its price target. Also Renault (RNO.FR) gained 4.3% after a positive interview in Le Figaro with management suggesting that the worst is over.

On day two of General Motors’ board meeting, an Opel representative warned that if General Motors opts to retain the unit, it would incur costs of $3.8 billion over the first 12 months. Other options include selling control of Opel to either Magna International (MGA) or RHJ International (RHJI.BT) or liquidating it.

Elsewhere, M&A continued to be a feature for European stocks. French media-to-telecom conglomerate Vivendi slipped 0.9% after it launched a EUR2 billion offer for Brazilian telecoms operator GVT Holding. This comes just two months after Vivendi halted talks with Zain to acquire a majority stake in its African telecommunications activities.

On Tuesday, the announcement of the merger of Deutsche Telecom’s (DT) and France Telecom’s (FTE) U.K. mobile units was being seen as a positive sector catalyst for telecom services, said a note by Cheuvreux.

Earlier, Asian stock markets were largely lower, with the key Japanese index dragged lower by concerns about further yen strength. Commodity and energy-related stocks bucked the trend, however, on stronger oil and metals prices.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 0.8% and South Korea’s Kospi Composite was off 0.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.9% lower, but the Shanghai Composite ended up 0.5%.

Investors in Tokyo moved to lock in profits on automakers, electronics firms and other exporters, wary of the yen’s appreciation against the dollar.

Overall, sentiment was not helped by gains on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.6% at 9497.3, gaining for the third straight session. The DJIA is up 45% from its 2009 low on March 9.

Helping push the index higher was another round of buying in several types of commodities including gold, silver and oil.

The Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.9% to 2037.8, hitting its highest close since Oct. 1. The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.9% to 1025.4, including more than 1% gains for energy, materials, industrial and consumer discretionary companies.

The spike in commodities continued Wenesday. October Nymex crude oil futures contract was last up 14 cents at $71.24 per barrel, after surging $3.08 or 4.5% in New York Tuesday. Spot gold was last seen at $997.75 a troy ounce, just below the key $1000/oz level.

In the foreign exchanges, the majors were trading in very tight ranges as traders looked for clear direction after the dollar’s losses Tuesday.

But earlier, the euro rose to a near nine-month high against the dollar as soaring commodity prices spurred risk appetite. The euro rose to a high of $1.4518. The common currency also briefly hit a 12-day high of Y134.17 against the yen.

At 0830 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.4484, up from $1.4478 in late New York business Tuesday. The dollar was quoted at Y92.53, up from Y92.33.

European government bond markets were marginally higher Wednesday, receiving a boost from the weaker tone on the equity markets. At 0830 GMT, the December bund future was up 0.08 at 121.26. However, the market’s attention was on Germany’s EUR7 billion two-year Schatz auction.

PPC Advertising

Google AdSense is the most popular option under this category, but there are also others. Basically you need to sign up with the network and paste some code snippets on your website. The network will then serve contextual ads (either text or images) relevant to your website, and you will earn a certain amount of money for every click.
The profitability of PPC advertising depends on the general traffic levels of the website and, most importantly, on the click-through rate (CTR) and cost per click (CPC). The CTR depends on the design of the website. Ads placed abode the fold or blended with content, for instance, tend to get higher CTRs. The CPC, on the other hand, depends on the nice of the website. Mortgages, financial products and college education are examples of profitable niches (clicks worth a couple of dollars are not rare), while tech-related topics tend to receive a smaller CPC (sometimes as low as a couple of cents per click).
The source of the traffic can also affect the overall CTR rate. Organic traffic (the one that comes from search engines) tends to perform well because these visitors were already looking for something, and they tend to click on ads more often. Social media traffic, on the other hand, presents terribly low CTRs because these visitors are tech-savvy and they just ignore ads.
List of popular advertising websites:
Google Adsense
Yahoo! Publisher Network (YPN)
BidVertiser
Chitika
Clicksor

Monetization Widgets

The latest trend on the web are widgets that let you monetize your website. Examples include Widgetbucks and SmartLinks. Some of these services operate under a PPC scheme, others behave like text link ads, others yet leverage affiliate links.
Their main differentiator, however, is the fact that they work as web widgets, making it easier for the user to plug and play the service on its website.
List of companies that provide monetization widgets:
WidgetBucks

RSS Feed Ads

With the quick adoption of the RSS technology by millions of Internet users, website owners are starting to find ways to monetize this new content distribution channel.
Feedburber already has its own publisher network, and you can sign-up to start displaying CPM based advertising on your feed footer. Bidvertiser recently introduced a RSS feed ad option as well, with a PPC scheme.
Related RSS Feed Ads links:
Feedburner
BidVertiser

Forex News Trading

Traders on the Foreign Exchange market, Forex market for short, can potentially make thousands of dollars based on the volatility and fluctuations of a country’s currency. To better themselves and have a leading advantage over other traders, some Forex traders and investors participate in a practice known as news trading. The risks are very high, but the potential gains can be worth thousands of dollars and many traders and investors use this technique.

The technique of news trading is quite simple. It is the trading of foreign currency immediately before or after an important economic news announcement. After such announcements, there is a high possibility that market prices will fluctuate, either for the better or worse, depending on the announcement. For example, if the U. S. Federal Reserve announces another increase of the interest rate, many traders might invest in the U.S. dollar as it is expected that its value will appreciate. The main advantage of news trading is the potential for a country’s currency to make huge gains or losses in very little time. Within minutes of an economic announcement, a country’s currency can gain or lose one hundred points almost instantly. The potential of huge profits attracts Foreign Exchange traders and investors, however there are various risks associated with news trading.

Like any investment, there is always a risk, and news trading on the Forex market is no different. Though the potential profits are huge, the losses are also equally as large. The dangers of news trading come from the fact that a trade must be made quickly or else you are going to lose. If you are caught on the bad side of a trade, your money will be gone quicker than you can blink your eye. You will lose money so fast that there won’t even be time for you to manually close your trades, leaving you with nothing. Stop-loss orders are also potentially dangerous as there is a high probability of slippage because of the sudden price fluctuation.

Though some investors and traders might get lucky trading news, there is only a small probability that you will make a profit. Even if you are an expert news trader, you should still be very, very cautious when participating in this practice. Successful news trading depends solely on how you get your news. The most successful news traders are the ones with the fastest news feeds and those that are able to quickly place their trades immediately after an announcement has been made. Even using other forms of news trading, such as placing orders above or below the market price is still a guessing game, and those traders in the market who base their trades on guesses, won’t have much money after a short time.

For many Forex traders and investors, their trades are dictated by technical indicators and price indexes. Hours are spent researching every indicator, taking every risk into account and then making a decision based on everything they have studied. However, for a Forex news trader, none of this matter, and the only thing they take into account is economical news announcements.

News trading is possible because the Forex market is always open, unlike many financial markets. In a financial market, securities trades of certain stocks are suspended when an important company announcement is being made. These announcements are usually made after the market has closed for the day. However, because the Foreign Exchange market is open 24 hours, any economic announcement will have direct affects on the currency of that country, and maybe others as well. In the Forex market, there are eight major currencies that are traded, as well as over seventeen derivatives to be traded as well. This means that on any given day, there will always be economic announcements from any of the major traded currencies. The major trader currencies are as follows:

1. U.S. Dollar (USD)
2. Great British Pound (GBP)
3. Euro (EUR)
4. Japanese Yen (JPY)
5. Australian Dollar (AUD)
6. Swiss Franc (CHF)
7. Canadian Dollar (CAD)
8. New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Because of the availability of each currency, currency pairs, and its derivatives, such as USD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, as well as several others, each currency can be traded at any given time because these currencies are globally traded.

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A Forex Education which Provides Expertise, Comprehension and Know-How are the Keys to Achievement.

Achievement in the currency markets is a great thing, because it means money, money in your pocket, money in your bank account, and most importantly of all, a newly created financial stability for you and your family as well as a new luxurious life style. To acquire those funds you will need an exceptional Forex education which will provide you the knowledge, understanding and expertise to become a lucrative investor and trader in the FX markets.Thankfully, everything you need to know to become profitable in the foreign exchanges markets are skills that can be taught and are skills that can be learned. That is, if you're dedicated, determined and willing to put in the time to study the material and learn it at the uppermost level. There is a ton of free training material on the internet you can look over by doing searches for it using the search engines. Unfortunately, the vast majority of this information is not sufficient for you to comprehend enough of every thing that goes on in the markets at a high enough point to provide a steady income for you. But, it is a good starting point that will supply you with adequate insight to make a decision for yourself if you want to proceed with this venture.If you make the choice to continue full speed ahead, next you will need to invest in yourself and your education by enrolling in a top rated currency course before you even contemplate investing one red cent in the markets A few of my favorites, all of which I have taken and taught me a great deal, are the following; Forex Trading Made E Z, Fap Winner, Straight Forex and Hector Trader.A top tier Forex education can lead to an entire new life style for you, if you let it. But, if you not willing to put in the work to learn everything you're going to need to know, you will be just wasting your time and money. I have been doing this ten to twelve hours a day for almost ten years now, and everyday I make it a point to try and learn just one little new thing that will help me. As my old high school basketball coach used to say, "No Pain, No Gain." Well, that old saying also holds the same meaning in the FX markets. Its all out there for you, you just have to go get it and refuse to let anybody stop you. Trading Forex Reviews.Com provides reports and reviews on the best Forex Trading Systems and Currency Software Trading Systems. To read them for yourselves please go to Top Rated Currency Trading & Investing Product Reviews. We have a long list of only the best Currency Courses and Forex Trading Classes at Free CurrenCY.